Te Tai Hauāuru voters appear to be hankering for an old-time first-past-the post kind of election as they reject assorted possible coalitions.
That comes from an exclusive Whakaata Māori poll that also shows the Labour candidate Soraya Peke-Mason and Te Pāti Māori co-leader and list MP Debbie Ngarewa-Packer in a neck-and-neck race well ahead of National list MP Harete Hipango and Vision New Zealand’s Paris Winiata.
The poll, conducted by Curia Market Research, was completed last week and shows Peke-Mason at 34%, with Ngarewa-Packer in close pursuit on 29%. If undecided or refused to answer respondents are taken out of the count, Peke-Mason has 41% support and Ngarewa-Packer 35% support.
The field was flung open when incumbent Labour MP and Speaker of the House, Adrian Rurawhe, opted to go list-only.
Hipango is the first National candidate to stand in a Māori seat in more than two decades but has gained only 12% support and Winiata is yet to make the leaderboard.
But 16% of voters are still undecided, which makes the race too close to call.
Coalition partners rejected
Notably, survey participants, asked which coalition partners the parties should choose to go into government with them, strongly rejected most combinations.
If Labour forms the next government, Te Tai Hauāuru voters least wanted ACT as its coalition partner (91%), then New Zealand First (84%) and Greens and Te Pāti Maori (both 53%). Te Pāti Māori and the Greens were the most preferred partner at 47%
If National were to form the next government, Te Tai Hauāuru voters strongly objected to ACT as its partner (79%), then New Zealand First (77%) and Te Pāti Māori (67%).
Te Pāti Māori was the most preferred partner at 33% and ACT and Greens both on 21%.
Asked if Te Pāti Māori held the balance of power, which party should it support, survey respondents voted for Labour at 59% and 20% for National.
Cost of living is the single biggest issue for voters in Te Tai Hauāuru at 27%, well ahead of the economy 9%, housing 8% taxes and health both on 7%.
Cost of living the big concern
However, broken down by ages, voters over 60 – baby boomers, who are mostly retired – were most concerned about the economy followed by the cost of living. Gen Xers aged from 40 to 59 were most concerned about the cost of living (27%) and 34% of the 18 to 39 year old cohort rated cost of living.
And, while the two older group barely rated honouring te Tiriti o Waitangi, the younger group showed some concern at 11%.
Chris Hipkins was Te Tai Hauāuru’s preferred prime minister on 32%, Winston Peters 12% and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer on 7% - ahead of Christopher Luxon and Rawiri Waititi who were both on 6%.
Whakaata Māori released the poll at the launch of its first live debate of the seven Māori seats from its newly opened studio, Hawaikirangi in East Tāmaki.
A total of 500 registered voters in each electorate are polled by Curia Market Research by landline, mobile and online with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 per cent.
Te Tai Hauāuru median response was collected on Wednesday September 13, 023
More Whakaata Māori polling will be released on Thursday for Ikaroa-Rāwhiti – another potential hot seat following the defection in May of former Labour cabinet minister, Meka Whaitiri, to Te Pāti Māori.
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti clash
Whaitiri goes head-to-head with Labour hopeful, Cushla Tangaere-Manuel, in the live Māori seat debate at 7pm.
Join Whakaata Māori for WHAKATAU 2023 where we continue to test the pulse of the Māori electorates on air and online, MĀORI+ and teaonews.co.nz.
DEBATE #2 - IKAROA RĀWHITI – THURS SEP 21
DEBATE #3 - TE TAI TONGA – TUES SEP 26
DEBATE #4 - WAIARIKI – THURS SEP 28
DEBATE #5 – HAURAKI-WAIKATO – TUES OCT 03
DEBATE #6 - TE TAI TOKERAU - THURS OCT 05
DEBATE #7 - TĀMAKI MAKAURAU – TUES OCT 10
