Labour’s Cushla Tangaere-Manuel is looking likely to beat sitting Ikaroa-Rāwhiti MP Meka Whaitiri unless Whaitiri can convince a large number of undecided voters to vote for her in the next couple of weeks.
According to Whakaata Māori’s exclusive poll of the electorate, Tangaere-Manuel on 33% has an eight-point lead over Te Pāti Māori’s Meka Whaitiri on 25%, with a large 29% of respondents undecided.
The poll, conducted by Curia Market Research, was completed on Tuesday.
The third candidate, Ata Tuhakaraina of Vision NZ has virtually no support at all.
One of the difficulties undecided voters may face is that Tangaere-Manuel, the former Ngāti Porou-East Coast Rugby chief executive, isn’t on the Labour Party List and must win the electorate to enter Parliament.
The Whakaata Māori poll revealed Labour is still the preferred party at 33%, ahead of Te Pāti Māori on 24%. But Te Pāti Māori is gaining ground among younger voters, with 39% support from those aged 18–39 compared to Labour’s 24%. Labour also has more support from women than men.
Another problem for those undecided one-third of voters may be that the coalition they most favour is Labour with Te Pāti Māori, making their choices between two wāhine toa from those parties even more difficult.
Some 45% chose Te Pāti Māori as a Labour coalition partner, particularly women and young people aged 18 to 39.
If Te Pāti Māori held the balance of power, 60% of the voters supported a coalition with Labour and 18% chose National.
Te Pāti Māori is the most popular preferred coalition partner for National at 28%, followed by ACT on 25%, NZ First 24% and Greens 19%.
Again notably, 91% of voters said no to ACT as a coalition partner. That follows a similar response by voters in the Te Tai Hauāuru electorate last week.
The voters live in some of the worst cyclone-wrecked areas of the country and, unsurprisingly, have identified cost of living as their leading issue at 23%, followed by the economy and employment, both on 9%.
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti was formed in 1999 and won by Labour’s Parekura Horomia who held it until his death in 2013. Meka Whaitiri succeeded him as the Labour MP 10 years ago in a by-election.
Earlier this year came her shock decision to leave Labour. However, to avoid triggering waka-jumping rules, she became an independent MP until the election despite declaring her support for Te Pāti Māori and then standing for it in this election.
Whaitiri won the seat for Labour in 2020 with a majority of 6,075 over her cousin Heather Te Au-Skipworth, standing for Te Pāti Māori. Te Au-Skipworth was asked by the party to step aside this time for Whaitiri, which some locals disagreed with.
Asked who they would prefer as prime minister, Labour leader Chris Hipkins gained 32%, followed by National leader Chris Luxon at 12%, Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi at 8% and Marama Davidson and Winston Peters each at 6%.
Some 76% of voters said they would definitely vote, with slightly more women than men (77% to 75%). Following traditional voting patterns, 87% of over 60-year-olds planned to vote with the number slipping to 83% for 40 to 59-year-olds and down to 63% for 18 to 39-year-olds.
Whakaata Māori released the poll results during a live debate with Tangaere-Manuel and Whaitiri from its new studio, Hawaikirangi, in East Tāmaki.
A total of 500 registered voters in each electorate were polled by Curia Market Research by landline, mobile and online with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 per cent. Ikaroa-Rāwhiti median response was collected on Tuesday 19 September 2023.
More Whakaata Māori debates will be held:
DEBATE #3 - TE TAI TONGA – 7PM, TUES SEP 26
DEBATE #4 - WAIARIKI – 7PM, THURS SEP 28
DEBATE #5 – HAURAKI-WAIKATO – 7PM, TUES OCT 03
DEBATE #6 - TE TAI TOKERAU - 7PM, THURS OCT 05
DEBATE #7 - TĀMAKI MAKAURAU – 7PM, TUES OCT 10
ELECTION NIGHT LIVE – 7PM ONWARDS, SATURDAY OCTOBER 14
POST ELECTION HIGHLIGHTS – 11AM, SUNDAY OCTOBER 15
