This article was first published by RNZ
Analysis: Christopher Luxon is kicking off the political year with a reshuffle that is expected to see Shane Reti removed from the health portfolio.
The Prime Minister arrived back from the UAE on Thursday, headed to the funeral of killed policewoman Lyn Fleming that afternoon, and then returned to the Beehive on Friday to begin rearranging his team ahead of their first caucus meeting on Tuesday.
Luxon was seen in the Beehive on Friday where he met with some of his trusted kitchen cabinet ministers and staff to hash out the reshuffle, which is expected to be reasonably big.
Reti, a respected doctor from the North, has been struggling in the health role - it is an issue that has become the biggest thorn in the side of Luxon and his government and increasingly shows up in polls as being a growing concern for New Zealanders.
While Reti has practical experience in health his background and personality sees him viewed as more of an academic, and he has struggled with the size and complexity of the health sector that is struggling under staff shortages, governance problems, and funding deficits.
Luxon had not planned to do a formal reshuffle at the start of the year, as has been popular with previous prime ministers, telling RNZ late last year he would have a different approach and make changes as and when they were needed.
that position has changed over the summer break.
Luxon will have had time to put a microscope on the various personnel and portfolios that could do with a shake-up and a poll on Friday showing Labour is ahead of National for the first time since April 2023 would have only reinforced his decision that a refresh was needed.
Sunday afternoon’s reshuffle to be announced by Luxon and his deputy, Nicola Willis, will unlikely impact the ministerial portfolios of Act and New Zealand First ministers.
Those positions were decided as part of the coalition agreements and are harder to change without the agreement by party leaders David Seymour and Winston Peters.
The two coalition partners have been given a heads-up, however, about what to expect from today’s reshuffle.
Several ministers have been thrown up as possibilities to take on the soon to be vacant health role, including Judith Collins, Paul Goldsmith, and Simeon Brown.
All three are seen as part of Luxon’s small team of more competent and experienced ministers, alongside Willis, Erica Stanford, and Chris Bishop, who already have very full dance cards.
It is a problem for Luxon that he is restricted in his options when it comes to reallocating important portfolios. While the executive is large, a number are ministers from other parties and there are only a handful of National ministers that Luxon can load up with more work and be trusted to do so.
It is a problem Jacinda Ardern also encountered during her first term as Prime Minister.
Luxon’s kitchen cabinet ministers are already visibly exhausted and overloaded. Whoever takes on the health portfolio will certainly have to be relieved of other work, though that could potentially only create more work for another colleague.
A new face in health could also present an opportunity for Luxon and National after a campaign commitment in 2023 to open a new medical school at Waikato University.
It is understood that project has been dogged with problems and is increasingly being seen as an unnecessary, costly, and bad idea.
A new minister could make their own assessment of the project and kill it without losing face in the way Reti would have - though it would still be seen as a broken promise by Luxon.
If Brown is to pick up health it would make sense for Bishop to take on his energy role to pair alongside the RMA reform and infrastructure portfolios he already holds.
Outside of the health portfolio changes Luxon is expected to make two or three others, which will likely see some promotion for current ministers and at least one demotion that would open up room for a new minister outside of cabinet.
The coalition has been in power for just over a year and this is already the second set of changes after Luxon stripped Melissa Lee of the broadcasting portfolio and demoted her from Cabinet in April after struggling to deal with the collapse of media outlets.
At the same time Penny Simmonds was moved out of the Disability Issues portfolio.
Those changes prompted Goldsmith to add broadcasting to his workload while Louise Upston picked up Disability Issues.
Luxon’s reshuffle comes as he resets the focus of his National team ahead of a two-day caucus retreat in Hamilton on Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by his State of the Nation speech in Auckland on Thursday.
His State of the Nation is expected to be focussed on the economy, and more specifically, the country’s productivity issues.
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By Jo Moir of RNZ
